That’s a wrap, folks! The year has finally come to an end, with the Nifty giving us one last hurrah by rallying another 2% this week, finishing off strong, and making its way into being among the best-performing markets in the world in 2023.
Making a comeback from the blood-curdling scream that was the year 2022, this year has been a redemption arc for most (sorry, China) - but we’re not here to talk about what went right.
At the end of 2022, while the world processed the death of Queen Elizabeth and Bappi Lahiri, market “experts” made bold assumptions about how 2023 would pan out. As the famous saying goes, if you assume, it makes an ass of u and me!
Hence, let’s look back at 3 bold predictions that were made for 2023 and how terribly wrong they turned out to be.
“The US Will Fall Into A Recession”
Prediction
The end of 2022 spelt out an ominous prophecy - the US had a 70% chance of falling into a recession. The logic was a simple one - inflation was running hot, the Fed would hike rates excessively to combat it, the economy wouldn’t be able to cope with high interest rates, consumers would falter, and a recession would occur
To be fair, at the time, home sales were down 35% YoY, 30-year mortgage rates were at highs of 7%, and inflation was at 7.1% - all signalling a textbook recession
Actual
With the power of the American consumer and the strength of the labour force (multi-decadal lows in unemployment at under 4%), the US coasted through the recessionary fears as inflation neared the Fed’s 2% aim
In fact, while a recession is indicated by a consecutive decline in GDP growth, 2023 saw a consecutive upward trend, with 2.1%, 2.2% and 4.9% seen in the first 3 quarters of the year
“China Will Bounce Back”
Prediction
After reluctantly (and finally) lifting its zero-tolerance COVID policy and opening its doors to the world and to its citizens again, the country was in line to be back on its throne of the foremost manufacturing unit on this Earth
Despite a real estate meltdown in 2021-2022 that made headlines everywhere, the government and its believers insisted on GDP growth at 6% or more, apparently set to outpace the US by 5x!
Actual
As you can see from the 15% decline in its stock market, none of that turned out to be true. In fact, towards the end of the year, FDI flows into China were negative for the first time in this century, owing to the precariously placed property sector (this is a big deal because China’s economy depends on foreign investment)
While the GDP growth is expected to ring in at around 5%, it still falls short of its expectations, coupled with exports declining, revenue from tax declining, and fiscal deficit expanding. In addition to all this, it has been seeing a massive debt crisis with a massive outstanding balance of US$ 12 trillion dollars (another big deal since it has grown from being 62% of the country’s economic output pre-COVID to 76% now)!
“World War III Will Begin”
Prediction
Pretending to be Oracles of mayhem, predictions of a World War 3 breaking out were flung around amid the Russia-Ukraine chaos. To top it off, the perennial tension between China and Taiwan, and the atrocities occurring in the Israel-Palestinian domain, didn’t seem like a far-fetched idea
For obvious reasons, the damage that the stock market would take could be potentially deadly, spiralling at disastrous proportions and resulting in your money probably not being safe in your blue chips!
Actual
Fortunately, sense prevailed among the people running their countries, and with the help of the United Nations and the looming threat of nuclear interference, no one would let a war of that scale occur
While it is still a devastating time in human history with the amount of geopolitical warfare being played, it seems like the world went on functioning as intended due to the vast economic interdependence that this fragmented globe thrives on
Apart from these, another variant of COVID that could lock everything down again and the Eurozone crumbling to its knees - all of these outrageous assumptions seemed realistic at the time they were declared, but if 2023 has shown as anything, it is that being pessimistic gets people nowhere!
Therefore, as 2024 stares dauntingly back at us, being realistic is what Rupeeting strives for as we continue to do our best to ensure that our investors remain steadfast in the belief that everything will eventually be okay.
Comments