Last year, we started a tradition at Rupeeting. At the end of the year, everyone from Team Rupeeting would bet on a stock for the next year. The one with the highest return would win!
Last year’s picks churned out several nice investment ideas, which also performed extremely well - Satin Creditcare, Varun Beverages and DB Realty were amongst the top performers, with near-double returns through 2023.
Continuing the tradition into 2024, the entire team has gone ahead and chosen 1 stock each that they think is the winning pick for the year. Unlike last year, we thought it would be a good idea to make these picks public.
You could get in on this action as well! Go through the stocks and their investment theses, or watch the podcast (scroll to the end), and comment on Youtube with which stock you would like to back, or which completely new entry you’d like to make into our little competition.
The pick with the highest returns wins the giveaway and a prize awaits you at the end of 2024!
Do note - these aren’t stock recommendations or advice from our team. It’s just our internal competition being set on stage.
Garden Reach Shipbuilders
Picked by: Sagar Lele - Portfolio Manager, Rupeeting
About: Garden Reach Shipbuilders is a government-owned shipbuilding company with a product portfolio spanning across frigates, corvettes, tankers and vessels. It also makes portable bridges, deck machinery, pumps and diesel engines for ships.
Investment Thesis
Fiscal alignment: India has been upping its defence spend, with a focus on capital outlay, which increased by 8% last year. Additionally, the focus has been on the Navy, with its budget going up 1.6x since 2020. Moreover, the government’s intent to ‘Make in India’, and reduce reliance on imports from the current 70% to less than 50% has already doubled India’s defence production to Rs. 1 lakh crore (2x in the last 4 years). All these factors bode well for domestic defence manufacturers like Garden Reach Shipbuilders.
Strong order book: Garden Reach Shipbuilders has an order book of > Rs. 25,000 crore, which is 10x its annual revenue. The order book consisting of 19 warships, 3 frigates, 8 anti-submarine vessels and 4 survey vessels is expected to be completed by 2027, and that alone should bring in >30% annual revenue growth over the next 3 years. In addition to this, the company is currently bidding for several projects, the materialising of which will only expand the order book and growth prospects from current levels.
Portfolio upgrade: Garden Reach Shipbuilders has traditionally made basic vessels, but is now getting a big boost in its capabilities. Its recent order from the Indian Navy for P17 frigates, which are stealth warships is a testament to this upgrade. In addition, it is also bidding to build ammunition for the Indian Navy, and is tying up with Rolls Royce to manufacture ship engines; materially expanding the addressable market. It expects to win orders worth more than Rs. 1 lakh crore (4x the current order book) in the coming future.
Financials: Garden Reach Shipbuilders is expected to see at least 30% revenue growth over the next 3 years as the current order book fructifies. With EBITDA margins at just 6% right now, there is immense potential for improvement with scale and growth, which can propel earnings growth to >40% over the next 3 years.
Valuation: The stock is trading at 25x two-year forward earnings, which seems inexpensive for the high growth and visibility. Additionally, the company has a large cash reserve, which makes up for 50% of the market cap, providing significant downside cushioning to valuations.
Seamec
Picked by: Prasanna Bidkar - Portfolio Manager, Rupeeting
About: Seamec is one of India’s largest offshore oilfield services provider. It owns and operates 5 multi-support vessels for the provision of diving services, manned and unmanned subsea operations and related activities, affiliated to large entities like ONGC. At parallel, it also manages 4 bulk carriers that are engaged in the transportation of various dry bulk.
Investment Thesis
Charter Rate Revision: The average duration of a contract to utilise the fleet of Seamec is fixed for 5 years and these charter rates have been fairly stable for a decade now. This has led to them operating at lower rates for a while, but once these contracts mature, which is currently underway in FY24, we will see further revenue accretion from the same fleet since the industry is demanding a 12-14% hike in the rates.
Averse To Crude Oil Fluctuations: Seamec has not been impacted by the volatility in crude oil prices as this has been taken care of by the clients who utilise its charter-hire services. Volatility in prices may impact the customers’ capex decision, but that seems unlikely too since the need for crude oil to continue the domestic reliance mission is at all-time highs
Capex and Partnerships: While it already operates 5 vessels and 4 bulk carriers, it has recently signed an MoU for another vessel worth Rs. 70 lakh. This is yet another step that is in line with reducing the average age of its fleet by acquiring newer vessels. Apart from this, the company also intends to enter into a tunnel construction contract to diversify its business, since its offshore business with ONGC makes up 70% of total revenues. While this partnership is a stable one, the company feels the need to have yet another service in its arsenal.
Financials: With these tailwinds in play, the expected revenue and PAT CAGRs for the next 3 years stand at 20% and 74% respectively, with fair room for EBITDA margins to expand from 30% to 36% and for return ratios to be healthier.
Valuations: The stock currently trades at a 14x PE on FY26 EPS. Given all these tailwinds mentioned above, the stock has the potential to re-rate!
Satin Creditcare Network
Picked by: Mehul Parikh - Portfolio Manager, Rupeeting
About: Satin Creditcare Network is an NBFC, which provides small loans to people who don’t have access to banking facilities. Its pan-India presence stretches to 23 states and more than 82,000 villages, maintaining its title as the leading micro-finance company in the country for 30 years.
Investment Thesis
Geographical Diversification: The company was previously concentrated within 18 states, with the top 10 amongst it making up for 93% of revenues. Furthermore, it had a massive exposure of 38% towards problematic states like Assam, Odisha and Uttarakhand that often phased calamity, resulting in the risk of non-repayment of loans. Satin mitigated this by reducing this exposure to 30% in the last 5 years, and diversified to 23 states
Business Diversification: The micro-financing space, although lucrative, is still riddled with risk. To mitigate against this concentration, the company entered the MSME and housing finance lending space, one which has grown at a 56% CAGR and 200% CAGR respectively over the past 5 years (while MFI by a mere 10%), slowly changing the revenue mix towards its favour. This higher growth and healthier business vertical is set to constitute 25% of AUM in the next few years, as opposed to 15% now
Improved Financials: Gross NPAs and return ratios have seen a significant improvement in the past 5 years as well, with the former reducing from 4.4% to 3%, while ROA and ROE have gone from being negative numbers to now being 4% and 15% respectively, off the back of the optimised business mix
Financials: Now that the clean-up in MFI business has been executed, and the stage set for scaling up MSME and housing finance businesses, Satin Creditcare Network expects the following:
AUM growth of 25% in FY24, which is vastly superior to the 7% CAGR achieved over FY18-23
AUM for the MSME and housing finance business are expected to grow at 60-70% YoY for the next 5-7 years
The MSME and housing finance businesses are expected to reach 25% of total AUM over the next 3-4 years (from 15% now), diversifying and de-risking the business further
The company receiving its first tranche of recoveries from the government for Assam, which accounts for nearly half the consolidated GNPA of 2.5%
Reduction of opex ratio to ease to 5.25-5.5% from 6%
Valuations: The stock has historically traded at a one-year forward P/BV of 0.9x. However, it can command a material premium to historical valuations given a healthier business, lower risk, higher growth, improved profitability and better return ratios.
Xpro India
Picked by: Dhiren Jain - Portfolio Manager, Rupeeting
About: Xpro India is a Birla group company, makes plastic films for capacitors and liners for refrigerators. At present, it is the only company to manufacture dielectric films for capacitors in India at this scale.
Investment Thesis
High Growth Market: Dielectric films are an all-pervasive space with massive applications in displays, solar cells, microchips, camera lenses, sensors, radars and even electric vehicles. With import reliance to the tune of 67%, this substitution play will be beneficial for Xpro India, considering that they are increasing capacity by 3x its current capabilities to satisfy that demand
Dielectric Monopoly: This space requires immense technical know-how, specialised machinery, and utmost precision, all of this makes this an industry that has hard to crack. Xpro India has honed these skills over 40 years, making them prime candidates to be a monopoly in India, and a major contender in the global market as well
White Goods: Xpro is also the largest manufacturer of co-extruded plastic sheets and liners that go into food containers, stationary, helmets, automotive interiors, luggage shells, sanitary products, and even electrical equipment used in houses, making this another high-growth space and an advantageous position for the company to be in
Financials: Xpro has seen a massive improvement in its numbers over the last 5 years, with electronic manufacturing picking up in India. While its revenue performance has been modest with a 10% CAGR, its profit has jumped from Rs. 10 crore in FY18 to Rs. 45 crore in FY23. With the capacity set to increase by 3x in the dielectric films division, Xpro India is likely to deliver a revenue CAGR of 18%. With this, factors that drove margins in the past can contribute to further improvement in profitability, and deliver a 33% PAT CAGR.
Valuations: Despite the 75x rise in the price of the stock over the last 5 years, it is still trading at a two-year forward PE of 24x, which for a 36% PAT CAGR signifies a PEG of 0.7x. In theory, a PEG of below 1x is seen as affordable. Therefore, at a hypothetical PEG of 1x, implying a PE of 36x, the price can 2x from current levels!
Godrej Properties
Picked by: Aayush Abraham - Research Analyst, Rupeeting
About: Godrej Properties is the real estate development arm of the Godrej Group, which was started in 1897 and is today one of India’s most successful conglomerates. With massive land parcels, simultaneous project launches and a well-positioned business mix, it has been titled the largest developer of FY23 by the most amount of homes sold in the year!
Investment Thesis
Ramped-up Launches: The Indian real estate market overall has seen an exuberance like never before, with housing sales hitting 6-year highs in most metropolitan cities and new projects hitting 10-year highs. With cumulative sales of Rs. 68,000 crore among the top real estate players in FY23, Godrej outshone with the highest YoY growth of 56% while its peers saw an average of 38% YoY. Godrej Properties has even outperformed itself in the past 5 years, launching a cumulative 95 million sq ft in properties from FY18-23 (average 20 million sq ft a year) as opposed to 10 million sq ft a year between FY12-17. Sitting on unsold inventory that gives an easy 2-year visibility of sales to the tune of about Rs. 32,000 crore, Godrej Properties might continue to shell out high growth rates.
Diversification: The company has actively been de-risking and diversifying its project pool, whether that is through introducing more joint ventures and development management projects (75% of all projects as opposed to 0% back in FY18). This will not only inculcate partnerships with other large and small developers to share costs and liabilities but provide the opportunity to invest and manage projects like hotels as well (huge partnerships with Taj and many South Indian players to seize the opportunity).
Financial Management: With its affiliation to the Godrej group, the company prides the lowest cost of debt of around the 6-7.5% range, much lower than the average 9%+ that its peers like DLF need to pay. Coupled with massive cash inflows coming in (OCF/EBITDA levels going from below 60% in FY18 to hovering around the 100% mark FY23 onwards) and reduction in debt levels via the QIP, the company is among the healthier of the lot in the real estate pile
Financials: With an expected revenue CAGR of 30% over the next 2 years, all the pristine financial management mentioned above, and a margin expansion to be seen from projects maturing, earnings can easily double from the FY23 levels by FY25.
Valuations: The stability and concrete growth prospect displayed by the company currently spits out a 43x 2-year forward PE. Taking all the potential into consideration, and the prestigious Godrej group assuring safety in an industry that knows nothing but lack of governance, ascribing a higher multiple is a no-brainer.
Archean Chemicals
Picked by: Lakshaya Sahajwalla - Research Analyst, Rupeeting
Archean Chemicals is India's largest exporter of bromine and industrial salt. The company is the leading speciality marine chemical manufacturer in India and is focused on producing and exporting bromine, industrial salt, and sulphate of potash to customers around the world.
Investment Thesis
Bromine Demand to Pick up in 2HFY24: In recent quarters, the company faced subdued demand in its bromine business domestically because of a weakening of agrochemical demand, and internationally - notably from China, its largest market, which experienced reduced inventory levels and a decline in demand. The company believes the most challenging phase for bromine is now in the past, noting early signs of recovery, in the form of higher inquiries from customers, and acquisition of new customers internationally.
Bromine Derivatives to Start in FY25: Archean Chemicals has commenced the sampling of bromine derivative products from its R&D department, and the initial response has been positive. Sales and marketing endeavours for these products are expected to kick off in the early stages of FY24. The production of clear brine fluid and PTA catalysts is projected to commence by the end of FY24, while BFR production is targeted for the first quarter of FY25. The down-streaming is likely to result in higher growth, better mix and higher margins for the company.
Margin Expansion: The company's EBITDA margins experienced a slowdown due to a challenging demand environment. However, with the expected recovery, EBITDA margins are expected to be propelled to reach 46% by FY25 compared to 38% in 1HFY24. Moreover, the commissioning of derivative plants by FY25, for which sampling has already commenced, is poised to act as a catalyst in expanding the margins
Financials: The company is expected to maintain a strong 30% earnings CAGR over the next two years with the help of its bromine business picking up and the company down-streaming into value-added products.
Valuations: The stock is trading at a two-year forward PE of 10x, which appears inexpensive in contrast to competitors trading at a multiple of 40x. Current valuations leave ample room for a re-rating given promising growth prospects.
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