CHART OF THE WEEK 📈
With central banks going hard on rate hikes, growth is expected to come off for the world in 2022. Many are even expecting a global recession in 2023.
The IMF releases its Global Economic Outlook reports, which forecast how fast economies will grow. For the last 4 quarters, the growth projections for 2022 have consistently been slashed by the IMF.
While for the West, growth projections have come off by 33-50%, for India they have dropped by a mere 15%.
Despite three consecutive hikes by the Fed, inflation is still at a four-decade high, and the job market is still red hot. The US will have to continue its aggression to tame inflation, which will (at some point) slow growth, and may even put the US into a recession in 2023.
EU and the UK
Inflation has been haunting Europe the most. While it faces the brunt of a global rise in prices, it also gets directly bashed by Russian actions. Recently, irregularities in natural gas supply to Europe from Russia resulted in a 14x jump in prices. If Russia doesn't resume supply, there is a very high probability of Europe slipping into a recession this winter.
A growing property market crisis coupled with multiple COVID outbreaks (and consequent lockdowns) has been slowing China down.
Bharat Desh Mahaan
An emerging market in comparison to the others on the graph, India has only seen the lowest cut in growth projections. Recently, Fitch downgraded growth projections for India, from 7.8% to 7% in accordance with the “global economic backdrop”.
India isn’t escaping a slowdown, but it may definitely dodge the recession bullet, which is an increasingly legitimate threat to the world.